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Lamwyk Intelligence

 
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Lamwyk Intelligence

Our Intelligence insights are provided by Alastair Winter, our resident advisor on Geopolitics, Marcoeconomics and Global Financial Markets.

 

Shorting the UK

A dash for cash (especially dollars) is the main driver of weakness in the pound, gilts and UK shares as they are not the only currency or asset classes to be hit hard.

However, it does seem as investors liquidate their various positions that the pound and UK assets are deemed more disposable than others, With markets now paying unusual heed to fundamental factors, the UK government's apparent insouciance over a 'hard Brexit ' and its confusing response to the virus is being judged and found wanting. Even more fundamental is the dominance of the Services Sector in the UK economy, large parts of which will suffer loss of business that cannot be recovered.

The pound is still probably oversold and should recover a bit once the liquidation of UK assets abates, especially against the euro which faces its own challenges.. However, it does seem to have been rudely dumped into a new and much lower trading range.

Gilt yields are starting to settle but in an upward trend as investors contemplate the unprecedented scale of borrowing ahead. UK equities are likely to remain as out of favour as other markets around the globe, including the US.

Alastair Winter, Economic Adviser